Biden vs. Trump: The State of the 2024 Presidential Race
Former President Donald Trump currently leads President Joe Biden
As the 2024 presidential race unfolds, the political landscape is marked by significant voter dissatisfaction and intense scrutiny of the candidates. Former President Donald Trump currently leads President Joe Biden by four percentage points among registered voters, with 44% supporting Trump and 40% backing Biden, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted July 1-7. Additionally, 15% of voters favor third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., reflecting a notable shift towards alternatives outside the traditional two-party system.
Voter Sentiments on Candidate Traits
Mental Sharpness and Health
Following President Biden's poor performance in the June 27 debate, concerns about his mental sharpness have intensified. According to the Pew Research Center survey, only 24% of voters describe Biden as mentally sharp, compared to 58% who believe Trump fits this description. This perception gap has widened since January, further eroding confidence in Biden’s cognitive abilities. The ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll also highlights that Trump leads Biden by 30 points in perceived mental sharpness and by a similar margin in physical health.
Embarrassment and Honesty
A significant proportion of voters find both candidates embarrassing, with 63% applying this label to both Biden and Trump, as found in the Pew Research Center survey. Among Biden supporters, 37% find their candidate embarrassing, while 33% of Trump supporters feel the same about Trump. When it comes to honesty, Biden holds an edge, with 48% of voters viewing him as honest compared to 36% for Trump, according to the same survey.
Demographic Insights
Age Groups
Support for Biden and Trump varies significantly across different age groups. Trump leads among voters aged 50 and older (48% to 39%) and among those aged 30 to 49 (42% to 37%), as per the Pew Research Center survey. However, Biden enjoys a substantial lead among voters under 30, securing 48% of their support compared to 28% for Trump. Kennedy garners notable support across all age groups, particularly among younger voters.
Race and Ethnicity
The racial and ethnic breakdown of voter support reveals clear divides. The Pew Research Center survey shows that Trump leads among White voters (50% to 36%), while Biden holds a strong lead among Black voters (64% to 13%). Hispanic voters are evenly split between Biden and Trump, each receiving 36% support, while Kennedy attracts 24% of Hispanic voters. Among Asian voters, Biden leads with 47% support, followed by Trump at 29% and Kennedy at 19%.
Broad Dissatisfaction with the Campaign
The current state of the 2024 presidential race has left many voters disillusioned. According to the Pew Research Center survey, 87% of voters feel the presidential race does not instill pride in the country, and 76% believe it fails to address important policy debates. The negative tone of the race is a concern for 68% of voters. Among supporters, Trump’s base shows more satisfaction with their candidate choices compared to Biden and Kennedy supporters. About half of Trump supporters (51%) are satisfied, while a significant majority of Biden (81%) and Kennedy supporters (90%) express dissatisfaction.
Desire for New Candidates
There is a growing desire among voters for new candidates on the ballot. The Pew Research Center survey indicates that 53% of voters would prefer to replace both Biden and Trump if given the chance, up from 49% in April. This sentiment is particularly strong among Biden supporters, with 71% favoring the replacement of both candidates. Conversely, Trump supporters have shown a decreased interest in replacing both candidates since April, with only 26% supporting this notion.
Voter Engagement and Issues
Kennedy supporters are notably less engaged in the election compared to Biden and Trump supporters. Only 39% of Kennedy supporters believe it really matters who wins, and just 21% are extremely motivated to vote, according to the Pew Research Center survey. On key issues such as immigration, the economy, and foreign policy, Trump holds a double-digit advantage over Biden. However, Biden is seen as more capable of working with officials from the opposing party and making good decisions on abortion policy.
NPR Poll Findings
The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll conducted after Biden's debate performance shows the race for the presidency remains statistically tied. Biden leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup but slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding a slight advantage of 43% to 42%. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points, meaning results could be three points higher or lower.
The Political Future Remains Uncertain
The 2024 presidential race is characterized by widespread voter dissatisfaction and stark contrasts in candidate perception. With Trump leading the race and a significant portion of the electorate seeking alternatives, the political future remains uncertain. At Info Decon, we aim to provide clear, unbiased analysis to help you navigate the complexities of this election. Stay informed and engaged with us at Info Decon to make well-informed decisions for the future of our nation.
References
Amid Doubts About Biden’s Mental Sharpness, Trump Leads Presidential Race
